From: Gary Lutin
To: Distribution: Willamette Shareholders
Sent: Wednesday, July 04, 2001 3:36 PM
Subject: FT: Situation analysis, prospects for value enhancement
As indicated in the report copied below, the
Willamette-Weyerhaeuser situation is developing exactly as expected in the
post-election phase. (See my 6/5/01 email summary of the opposing
positions, copied beneath the FT article.)
What happens now, to the negotiating process
as well as to Willamette's stock price, depends on whether shareholders
are willing to assert their own interests in an alternative to the
management squabbling contest. If anyone wants to do anything about this
"value enhancement opportunity," let me know.
GL - 7/4/01
Hopes of a relatively quick resolution to the USDollars 7.2bn takeover
battle between Weyerhaeuser and Willamette, the rival US forest products
groups, have been dashed after a vote by Willamette shareholders provided
neither side with a clear-cut mandate.
The result of Monday's vote, in which Weyerhaeuser barely managed to gain
a foothold on Willamette's board, was seen as the worst possible scenario
for shareholders of the two companies, which now face the prospect of a
year-long war of attrition.
The shareholder vote, which Weyerhaeuser won by less than 1 per cent, was
designed to pressure Willamette into takeover negotiations. Willamette has
since last November bitterly resisted Weyerhaeuser's offer, which has been
raised to the current price of USDollars 50 per share, for a total of
Dollars 5.5bn in cash and Dollars 1.7bn in assumed debt.
Weyerhaeuser's success in getting its three candidates elected to
Willamette's nine-member board increases the likelihood that the larger
Weyerhaeuser could eventually succeed in taking control of its target.
But Weyerhaeuser will have to wait another year for a chance to alter the
balance of power on Willamette's board and the close result left observers
wondering what each company would do next.
Weyerhaeuser claims its victory shows Willamette shareholders want their
board to enter into negotiations that would lead to a takeover agreement.
Willamette argues that the closeness of the vote suggests there is no
mandate to sell the company.
Observers were divided on how the war would unfold. Mark Wilde, analyst
at Deutsche Banc Alex Brown, said Willamette was not likely to be willing to
risk losing control of its board in another shareholder vote.
He argued that pressure on Willamette to conclude a deal would increase
significantly in the first quarter of 2002 as the date of the next
shareholder meeting approached.
Others, however, questioned whether Weyerhaeuser would be willing to wait
that long. Takeover battles are distracting at the best of times and more so
in an industry struggling to reduce capacity to meet demand. Some observers
argue Weyerhaeuser cannot make capacity rationalisation plans until it knows
exactly how much capacity is available to be cut.
Weyerhaeuser has denied its strategy and operations have been negatively
affected by the uncertainty, but some observers believe it would be better
off raising its offer sooner than later.
"Because the vote wasn't a runaway, Weyerhaeuser will have to bump it up
to the mid- to high-Dollars 50s," said one industry observer.
What is almost certain is that this battle will be fought strictly
between the two companies. With both based in the Pacific north-west, they
would provide greater synergies than any other combination.
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited
----- Original Message -----
From: Gary Lutin
To: Distribution: Willamette Shareholders
Sent: Tuesday, June 05, 2001 10:28 AM
Subject: Responses to 5/29 letter
The responses of both Willamette's and Weyerhaeuser's chairmen -- or, more
accurately, their failure to respond -- indicates that both sides are
dedicated to fighting rather than negotiating.
Willamette's Swindells essentially reaffirmed his "go away" position.
Weyerhaeuser's Rogel never called, apparently changing his mind after
asking me to wait for his return on Monday (yesterday).
Under these circumstances, shareholders should assume that there is a high
probability that both sides will continue their squabbling after the June
7th vote. Willamette's management has demonstrated their dedication to a
"no surrender" strategy and can be expected to focus on disparaging
Weyerhaeuser and its delegates' disruption of Willamette's board.
Weyerhaeuser, by their failure to exploit my letter's opportunity to
position themselves for negotiations, has signaled their very logical
adoption of a standard strategy for completing the acquisition of a
"captive" company at the lowest possible cost -- after allowing
some deterioration in market value, which they will of course blame on
Willamette's management.
There appears to be little chance now that either side will be genuinely
receptive to a cooperative process of negotiation, either before or after
the vote. (Of course, as part of their positioning, both sides will
probably claim that they would be willing but that the other side is
obstructive.) But I will continue to observe the situation, and will
welcome suggestions of anything I might do to support shareholder
interests.
GL - 6/5/01
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