Considerations and Recommendations:
Egan-Jones' review centered on the Proposals in the context of
maximizing shareholder value, based on publicly available information.
Company Profile:
Providian Financial Corporation. San Francisco-based
Providian is a leading provider of credit cards to mainstream American
consumers throughout the United States, with approximately 9.5 million
customer relationships. At June 30, 2005, Providian and its
subsidiaries had reported assets of approximately $14.08 billion.
Providian’s primary line of business is its credit card business,
which generates consumer loans primarily through Visa credit cards and
also through MasterCard credit cards. Providian targets creditworthy
customers across the broad middle to prime market segments, with a
particular focus on middle market customers who are underserved by
many large, prime-oriented card issuers. In originating new loans,
Providian focuses on the parts of the middle and prime market segments
that it expects to be the most profitable and creditworthy. Providian
expects to generate profitable customer relationships through its
proprietary marketing program, which emphasizes the portion of the
market it refers to as “mainstream America,” and through its
partnership and co-branding marketing programs, which use targeted
criteria to market its credit card products to creditworthy
individuals associated with various groups and organizations with
which Providian enters into arrangements to serve their members.
“Mainstream America” refers to a target market composed of
creditworthy people throughout the United States generally defined by
Providian’s credit, income, demographic, and psychographic criteria.
Washington Mutual, Inc. With a history dating back to
1889, Washington Mutual is a retailer of financial services that
provides a diversified line of products and services to consumers and
commercial clients. At June 30, 2005, Washington Mutual and its
subsidiaries had reported assets of $323.53 billion. Washington Mutual
currently operates more than 2,400 retail banking, mortgage lending,
commercial banking and financial services offices throughout the
United States. Washington Mutual strives to be the nation’s leading
retailer of financial services for consumers and small businesses and
plans to achieve this by building strong, profitable relationships
with a broad spectrum of consumers and businesses. Expanding its
retail banking franchise and achieving efficiencies in its operations
will be critical to its future success.
Following the acquisition of the three largest California-based thrift
institutions in the latter part of the 1990s, Washington Mutual
continued to expand nationally by acquiring companies with strong
retail banking franchises in Texas and the greater New York
metropolitan area. During this period, Washington Mutual developed and
launched its innovative retail banking stores that serve customers in
an open, free-flowing retail environment. With the goal of combining
its strengths as a deposit taker and portfolio lender with those of a
mortgage banker, Washington Mutual also expanded its presence in the
home loan origination and servicing businesses through acquisitions
made from 1999 through 2002. These mortgage banking acquisitions also
served to further extend its national footprint.
Structure of the Merger
Subject to the terms and conditions of the merger agreement, and in
accordance with Washington and Delaware law, at the completion of the
merger, Providian will merge with and into Washington Mutual.
Washington Mutual will be the surviving corporation in the merger and
will continue its corporate existence under the laws of the State of
Washington. Upon completion of the merger, the separate corporate
existence of Providian will terminate. Immediately following
completion of the merger, Providian’s wholly-owned depository
institution subsidiary, Providian National Bank, will merge with and
into Washington Mutual’s wholly-owned depository institution,
Washington Mutual Bank, and the separate corporate existence of
Providian National Bank will terminate.
Each share of Washington Mutual common stock issued and outstanding at
the effective time of the merger will remain issued and outstanding as
one share of common stock of Washington Mutual, and each share of
Providian common stock issued and outstanding at the effective time of
the merger (other than shares for which appraisal rights have been
perfected and shares owned directly by Providian or Washington Mutual)
will be converted into the right to receive a combination of cash and
Washington Mutual common stock. After completion of the merger, former
Providian stockholders will own approximately 13.5% of the outstanding
common stock of the combined company and continuing Washington Mutual
stockholders will own approximately 86.5% of the outstanding common
stock of the combined company.
The consideration will be determined based on a fixed exchange ratio
of 0.45 Washington Mutual common shares per Providian common share,
89% in the form of Washington Mutual common stock and 11% in the form
of cash. Based on the closing price of Washington Mutual’s common
stock of $41.57 per share on June 3, 2005, this implies a value for
the merger consideration of $18.71 per share of Providian common
stock representing total equity value of $6,452 million.
Background of the Merger
The management of Providian has from time to time explored and
assessed, and has discussed with its board of directors, various
strategic options potentially available to Providian which included
the possibility of, among other things, business combinations
involving Providian and other financial institutions, particularly in
view of the increasing competition and ongoing consolidation in the
financial services industry, as well as the requirements of
Providian’s regulatory agreements entered into in 2001 and the related
capital plan. Providian and its financial advisors had periodic
contacts and discussions with other financial institutions regarding
their respective companies, industry trends and developments, and
potential business combinations or other strategic initiatives
including Washington Mutual.
During this period Washington Mutual has also explored ways, both
through acquisitions and by internal expansion, to enhance its
consumer banking growth while strengthening its leadership position in
the middle-market customer segment.
In late March 2005, in an industry conference, Joseph Saunders,
Chairman, President and CEO of Providian, and Kerry Killinger,
Chairman and CEO of Washington Mutual, met and had general discussions
regarding the financial services industry, including the credit card
industry in particular, and their respective companies. In late April
2005, the parties executed a customary confidentiality agreement.
Over the ensuing weeks, representatives of Providian and Washington
Mutual continued periodic informal discussions, including discussions
regarding the potential benefits of a combination of the two
companies, as well as potential transaction valuations and preliminary
due diligence discussions.
In addition, members of Washington Mutual’s management team
periodically updated the Corporate Development Committee of Washington
Mutual’s board of directors at special meetings held for the purpose
of evaluating the potential transaction with Providian.
In late May 2005, Messrs. Saunders and Killinger met again and
continued discussions regarding each company’s perspective on
transaction valuation. As a result of these discussions, assuming
satisfactory conclusion of due diligence and negotiation of the terms
of a definitive agreement, they were each prepared to present to their
respective boards of directors a proposed merger with an exchange
ratio of 0.45 shares of Washington Mutual common stock for each share
of Providian common stock. Throughout late May 2005 and early June
2005, Washington Mutual and its representatives continued their due
diligence review, which included on-site due diligence visits and
additional meetings with Providian’s management. Also during this
time, Providian and its legal and financial advisors continued their
due diligence review of Washington Mutual’s operations.
The Providian board of directors held special meetings of the board on
May 27, 2005 and June 2, 2005, at which Mr. Saunders presented to the
board the proposal from Washington Mutual, and updated the board on
the background of his meetings and conversations with Washington
Mutual. Also during these meetings, Mr. Saunders updated the board
regarding Washington Mutual’s strong interest in and need for
management continuity, including the retention of the top executives
of Providian to continue to operate the combined company’s credit card
business, which would be a new line of business for Washington Mutual.
Mr. Saunders noted in this regard that Washington Mutual would require
key members of Providian management to enter into employment
agreements with Washington Mutual in the event that Washington Mutual
and Providian entered into a definitive merger agreement.
During the week of May 30, 2005, Washington Mutual and Providian
continued to conduct mutual due diligence, including on-site
diligence, involving senior executives from both companies, as well as
their outside financial and legal advisors. Also during this time, the
parties and their outside counsel began drafting and negotiating the
terms of the merger agreement and the related transaction documents,
including proposed employment agreements between Washington Mutual and
several key executives of Providian.
On June 4, 2005, the board of directors of Providian met to discuss
and analyze Washington Mutual’s offer as reflected in the proposed
merger agreement. Mr. Saunders reviewed for the Providian board of
directors the background of discussions and negotiations with
Washington Mutual, including the proposal to provide for the payment
of 11% of the deal consideration in cash based on the market value of
the Washington Mutual common stock upon completion of the merger and
the fixed 0.45 exchange ratio. Providian’s financial advisors,
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, presented financial analyses related to
the proposed merger and responded to questions posed by the Providian
board of directors. In connection with the deliberation by the
Providian board of directors, Citigroup rendered to the Providian
board of directors its oral opinion (subsequently confirmed in writing
on June 5, 2005), that, as of the date of its opinion and based upon
and subject to the factors, assumptions, procedures, limitations and
qualifications set forth in its written opinion and other factors
Citigroup considered relevant, the merger consideration to be received
for each share of Providian common stock pursuant to the merger
agreement was fair from a financial point of view to the holders of
such shares. In connection with the deliberation by the Providian
board of directors, Goldman Sachs rendered to the Providian board of
directors its oral opinion (subsequently confirmed in writing on June
5, 2005), that, based upon and subject to the factors, assumptions,
procedures, limitations and qualifications set forth in its written
opinion, the consideration to be received by the holders of Providian
common stock, taken in the aggregate, pursuant to the merger agreement
was fair from a financial point of view to such stockholders.
Representatives of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, legal advisors to
Providian, discussed with the Providian board of directors the legal
standards applicable to its decisions and actions with respect to its
evaluation of merger proposals, and reviewed the legal terms of the
merger proposal and the related employment agreements.
Following these discussions, the Providian board of directors
determined that the merger, the merger agreement and the transactions
contemplated by the merger agreement are advisable and in the best
interests of Providian and its stockholders, and the directors voted
unanimously to approve the merger with Washington Mutual and to
approve and adopt the merger agreement.
The board of directors of Washington Mutual held a meeting on June 5,
2005, to review and consider the merger, the merger agreement and the
related transactions.
Management of Washington Mutual, together with representatives of
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP, its legal advisors, and Lehman
Brothers Inc. and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, its financial
advisors, discussed with the board the business, financial condition
and prospects of Providian and the terms of the proposed merger
agreement and the proposed employment agreements with members of
Providian’s executive management team. Following discussion among
Washington Mutual’s board of directors and Washington Mutual’s
management concerning the transaction, the board of directors of
Washington Mutual unanimously approved the merger agreement, the
employment agreements and the transactions contemplated by the merger
agreement.
In the evening of June 5, 2005, Washington Mutual and Providian
entered into the merger agreement. On the morning of June 6, 2005,
Washington Mutual and Providian issued a joint press release
announcing the transaction.
Analysis and Considerations:
Egan-Jones' review centered on the strategic and financial aspects
of the proposed transaction in the context of maximizing shareholder
value. In doing so, we view the following as significant factors in
evaluating the proposed transactions:
Key Positive Components
-
Its knowledge of Providian’s business, operations, financial
condition, earnings and prospects, including the challenges
presented by the relatively high cost of funding faced by
Providian, its non-investment grade debt rating, which subjects it
to volatility in the cost of raising money in the capital markets,
and the requirements of Providian’s regulatory agreements entered
into in 2001 and the related capital plan.
-
The complementary strengths of the two financial institutions, and
in particular, the expectation that Washington Mutual’s national
multi-channel distribution network, marketing expertise and
customer base would provide opportunities for growth in
Providian’s credit card business.
-
Citigroup’s and Goldman Sachs' written opinion to the Providian
board of directors that, as of June 5, 2005, and based upon and
subject to the factors, assumptions, procedures, limitations and
qualifications set forth therein, the merger consideration to be
received for each share of Providian common stock pursuant to the
merger agreement was fair from a financial point of view to the
holders of such shares.
-
The expected treatment of the merger as a “reorganization” for
United States federal income tax purposes;
Key Negative Components
-
The financial terms of the merger, including the fact that, based
on the closing price on the New York Stock Exchange of Washington
Mutual common stock on June 3, 2005 (the last trading day prior to
the execution and announcement of the merger agreement), given the
implied per share merger consideration value of approximately
$18.71, the acquisition price as of June 3, 2005 represented
only an approximate 4% percent premium over the closing price
of Providian shares on the New York Stock Exchange as of that
date, a 9.1% premium over the average closing price of Providian
shares on the New York Stock Exchange for the prior month and a
44.7% premium over Providian’s fifty-two week low closing price.
As such, the merger consideration value is inadequate.
-
Because the market price of Washington Mutual common stock will
fluctuate, Providian stockholders will not know until the closing
of the merger the value of the shares of Washington Mutual common
stock or the amount of cash that will be issued or paid in the
merger.
-
The structure of the merger and the terms of the merger agreement,
including the fact that Providian stockholders would receive the
merger consideration in a combination of 11% cash and 89%
Washington Mutual common stock, and including the stockholder
approval covenants and provision for the payment of a termination
fee of up to $225 million in certain events, which the
Providian board of directors understood could limit the
willingness of a third party to propose a competing business
combination transaction with Providian following execution of the
merger agreement.
-
Providian has agreed that it, its subsidiaries and their officers,
directors, employees, agents, representatives and affiliates will
not, directly or indirectly: (i) initiate, solicit, encourage or
knowingly facilitate any inquiries or proposals with respect to
any acquisitional proposal; (ii) engage in any negotiations
concerning, or provide any nonpublic information to, or have any
discussions with any person relating to, any acquisition proposal;
(iii) waive, terminate, modify or fail to enforce any provision of
any contractual "standstill" or similar obligation of any person
other than Washington Mutual or its affiliates; or (iv) approve or
recommend, or propose to approve or recommend, any acquisition
proposal for the Company to receive a superior proposal which
could be more favorable from a financial point of view to its
stockholders that the merger with Washington Mutual.
-
The regulatory and other approvals required in connection with the
merger and the likelihood such approvals would be received without
unacceptable conditions.
-
The potential risk of diverting management focus and resources
from other strategic opportunities and from operational matters
while working to implement the merger.
-
The fact that some of Providian’s directors and executive officers
have other financial interests in the merger that are in addition
to their interests as Providian stockholders, including as a
result of employment and compensation arrangements with Providian
and the manner in which they would be affected by the merger, as
well as the new employment agreements that certain of these
persons entered into with Washington Mutual in connection with the
merger. The following are the proposed arrangements based on the
merger agreement upon completion of the merger:
-
Equity Compensation Awards. The merger agreement
provides that upon completion of the merger, each Providian
stock option, including those held by executive officers and
directors of Providian, will vest and be converted into
Washington Mutual stock options based on the exchange ratio in
the merger. In addition, each other stock-based award based upon
shares of Providian common stock, including those held by
executive officers and directors of Providian, other than stock
options and restricted stock, will vest and be converted.
-
Current Providian Change of Control Employment
Agreements. Each of Providian’s executive officers,
including Messrs. Saunders, Vuoto, and Wilcox and Mses. Richey
and Chen, is party to a change of control employment agreement
(or in the case of Mr. Saunders, an employment agreement
providing for the same severance benefits as the change of
control agreements). As described further below, each of Messrs.
Saunders, Vuoto, and Wilcox and Ms. Chen, as well as other
executives, has entered into an employment agreement with
Washington Mutual which, as of completion of the merger, will
become effective and will supersede the current Providian change
of control agreements (and the current employment agreement
between Mr. Saunders and Providian). There are also other
Providian executive officers with current Providian change of
control agreements who will not enter into employment agreements
with Washington Mutual. Each of the current change of control
agreements, each executive officer will be entitled to a lump
sum payment equal to the sum of (a) the executive officer’s base
salary through the date of termination and any bonuses that have
been determined, but not paid, (b) a pro rata bonus through the
date of termination based on the higher of (1) the executive
officers’ most recent annual bonus or (2) the highest bonus paid
to the executive officer during the three years prior to the
change of control (the “reference bonus”), (c) an amount equal
to three times the sum of (x) the executive officer’s annual
base salary and (y) the executive officer’s reference bonus and
(d) continued welfare benefits for three years after any such
termination of employment.
-
Washington Mutual Employment Agreement with Joseph
Saunders. Washington Mutual has entered into an
employment agreement, dated as of June 5, 2005, with Joseph
Saunders, the current Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of
Providian, which upon completion of the merger will become
effective and will supersede his current employment agreement.
Upon completion of the merger, Mr. Saunders will receive a lump
sum cash payment equal to the three-times payment that he would
have received pursuant to his current Providian employment
agreement described above immediately following completion of
the merger. In addition, upon completion of the merger, Mr.
Saunders will receive shares of Washington Mutual restricted
common stock having a value of $2,000,000 as of the date of the
completion of the merger, and options to purchase a number of
shares of Washington Mutual common stock equal to three times
the number of restricted shares granted to Mr. Saunders upon
completion of the merger. During the term of Mr. Saunders’
employment under his agreement with Washington Mutual, Mr.
Saunders will receive an annual base salary of $800,000. In
addition, for each fiscal year ending during the term of Mr.
Saunders’ employment under this agreement, Mr. Saunders will be
eligible to earn an annual cash bonus based on a target of 200%
of Mr. Saunders’ annual base salary. During the term of Mr.
Saunders’ employment under this agreement, Mr. Saunders will
receive long-term incentive awards at the same time, at such
levels and on substantially the same terms and conditions, as
similarly situated executives of Washington Mutual.
-
Washington Mutual Employment Agreements with Other
Executives. Washington Mutual has entered into
employment agreements, dated as of June 5, 2005, with each of
Messrs. Vuoto and Wilcox and Ms. Chen and certain other
Providian executives, which, upon completion of the merger, will
become effective and supersede their current change of control
agreements. In consideration for canceling their current
Providian change of control agreements, each of these executives
will receive a lump sum cash payment payable in two installments
and equal to the three-times payment that he or she would have
received pursuant to his current change of control agreement.
Upon completion of the merger, each of Messrs. Vuoto and Wilcox
and Ms. Chen will receive a grant of a number of shares of
Washington Mutual restricted common stock having a value of
$400,750 as of the date of the completion of the merger, and
options to purchase a number of shares of Washington Mutual
common stock equal to three times the number of restricted
shares granted to the executive upon completion of the merger.
During the term of the executive’s employment under the
employment agreement, each of Messrs. Vuoto and Wilcox and Ms.
Chen will receive an annual base salary of $400,000, $350,000,
and $350,000, respectively. In addition, for each fiscal year
ending during the term of the executive’s employment under the
employment agreement, each of Messrs. Vuoto and Wilcox and Ms.
Chen will be eligible to earn an annual cash bonus based on a
target of 100 percent of the executive’s annual base salary.
During the term of the executive’s employment under the
employment agreement, each of Messrs. Vuoto and Wilcox and Ms.
Chen will also receive long-term incentive awards at the same
time, at such levels and on substantially the same terms and
conditions, as similarly situated executives of Washington
Mutual.
-
Indemnification and Insurance. Washington Mutual
has agreed to indemnify and hold harmless all past and present
officers and directors of Providian and its subsidiaries in
their capacities as such against all losses, claims, damages,
liabilities, costs, expenses, judgments, fines and amounts paid
in settlement to the fullest extent such persons would be
entitled to such indemnification under applicable law and the
by-laws of Providian as in effect on the date of the merger
agreement.
We also considered the Joint Financial Analyses of Citigroup
and Goldman Sachs, as described in the proxy:
Transaction Overview and Indicated Transaction Multiples.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs reviewed with the Providian board of
directors the basic terms of the merger, including the following:
• consideration to be determined based on a fixed exchange ratio of
0.45 Washington Mutual common shares per Providian common share, 89%
in the form of Washington Mutual common stock and 11% in the form of
cash;
• implied value for the merger consideration of $18.71 per share of
Providian common stock (based on the closing price of Washington
Mutual’s common stock of $41.57 per share on June 3, 2005),
representing total equity value of $6,452 million; and
• pro forma percentage ownership by current Providian stockholders of
13.5% of the combined company, based on fully diluted shares per the
treasury stock method.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs calculated for the Providian board of
directors various multiples and premiums resulting from the merger.
These calculations were based on historical information, estimates
from Institutional Brokerage Estimate System, or IBES (a data service
that compiles estimates issued by securities analysts) and certain
financial analyses and forecasts for Providian prepared by its
management taking into account the 2005 Capital Plan of Providian
National Bank (the “Capital Plan May Forecast”).
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs calculated the percentage premium of the
implied per share value of the merger consideration (based on the
closing price of Washington Mutual common stock on June 3, 2005) over:
• the closing price per share of Providian common stock on June 3,
2005 (the last trading day prior to the presentation made by Citigroup
and Goldman Sachs to the Providian board of directors);
• the average closing prices per share of Providian common stock for
the one-week, one-month and year-to-date periods ended June 3, 2005;
• the highest and lowest closing prices per share in the 52-week
period ended June 3, 2005; and
• Providian’s managed receivables as of March 31, 2005, calculated as
transaction value less book value and loan loss reserves (net of
estimated deferred tax asset).
The following table presents the results of Citigroup’s and Goldman
Sachs’ calculations:
Premium to: |
|
Share Price at June 3, 2005 |
4.2% |
One-Week Average |
5.8 |
One-Month Average |
9.1 |
Year to Date Average |
10.5 |
52-Weel High |
2.3 |
52-Week Low |
44.7 |
Managed Receivables |
18.4 |
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs also calculated the ratio of the implied
per share value of the merger consideration to Providian’s estimated
earnings per share, or EPS, for each of fiscal years 2005 and 2006,
its actual 2004 EPS and its book value as of March 31, 2005. The
following table presents the results of Citigroup’s and Goldman Sachs’
calculations:
Price as a Multiple of: |
|
2004A EPS |
15.7x |
Median IBES Estimates |
|
2005E EPS |
11.8x |
2006E EPS |
10.9x |
Capital Plan May Forecast |
|
2005E EPS |
12.5x |
2006E EPS |
11.7x |
Stated Book Value at March 31, 2005 |
1.9x |
Implied Historical Exchange Ratio Analysis. Citigroup
and Goldman Sachs calculated and reviewed the historical exchange
ratios implied by dividing the daily closing price per share of
Providian common stock by the daily closing price per share of
Washington Mutual common stock for each trading day in the 52-week
period ended June 3, 2005, as well as the average of these exchange
ratios for this 52-week period and for other specified periods ended
June 3, 2005, and the high and low implied exchange ratios during this
52-week period. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs then calculated the
implied percentage premium represented by the exchange ratio of 0.45
to be used in calculating the merger consideration for the merger as
compared with such historical ratios. The results of these
calculations are set forth in the following table:
|
Implied Exchange Ratio |
Implied Premium |
June 3, 2005 |
0.43x |
4.2% |
One-Week Average |
0.43 |
6.0 |
One-Month Average |
0.41 |
9.6 |
Year-to-Date Average |
0.41 |
7.6 |
One-Year Average |
0.39 |
13.9 |
52-Week High |
0.45 |
2.7 |
52-Week Low |
0.34 |
31.7 |
Selected Companies Analysis—Providian. Citigroup and
Goldman Sachs reviewed and compared certain financial information for
Providian to corresponding financial information, ratios and public
market multiples for the following publicly traded companies in the
consumer finance industry:
Selected Monoline Credit Card Companies |
Selected Bank Credit Card Issuers |
MBNA Corporation |
Citigroup Inc. |
Capital One Financial Corp. |
Bank of America Corporation |
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
Although none of the selected companies is directly comparable to
Providian, the companies included were chosen because they are
publicly traded companies with operations that, for purposes of
analysis, may be considered similar to certain operations of
Providian.
The financial information used by Citigroup and Goldman Sachs for all
companies in the course of this analysis was based on publicly
available information as of June 3, 2005, IBES estimates and
information provided by SNL Datasource. The multiples and ratios for
each of the selected companies were based on the most recent publicly
available information.
For the selected companies, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs calculated the
ratios of June 3, 2005 closing stock price to:
• calendar year 2005 and 2006 IBES earnings estimates;
• stated book value and tangible book value; and
• 2006 IBES estimated earnings, as a multiple of IBES estimated
long-term earnings growth.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs then compared these measures to the
corresponding values for Providian (using IBES and Capital Plan May
Forecast earnings estimates for 2005 and 2006). The results of this
analysis are summarized as follows:
Ratio |
Selected Monoline Credit
Card Companies
Range |
Selected Monoline Credit
Card Companies
Median |
Selected Bank Credit
Card Issuers
Range |
Selected Bank Credit
Card Issuers
Median |
Providian
(IBES
Estimates) |
Providian
(Capital Plan May Forecast) |
Price/2005E Earnings |
10.4x–10.8x |
10.6x |
10.8x–11.9x |
11.3x |
11.3x |
12.0x |
Price/2006E Earnings |
9.7x– 9.7x |
9.7x |
10.2x–10.3x |
10.3x |
10.4x |
11.2x |
Price/Stated Book |
2.0x– 2.2x |
2.1x |
1.2x– 2.3x |
1.9x |
1.9x |
N/A |
Price/Tangible Book |
2.1x– 3.0x |
2.6x |
2.2x– 3.8x |
3.6x |
1.9x |
N/A |
Price/2006E P/E to Growth |
0.7x– 1.0x |
0.9x |
0.9x– 1.1x |
1.0x |
0.8x |
N/A |
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs also calculated the selected companies’
estimated earnings growth rate from 2005 to 2006, based on IBES
estimated earnings for each of those years, and compared this measure
to the corresponding value for Providian (using IBES and Capital Plan
May Forecast earnings estimates for 2005 and 2006). The following
table presents the results of this analysis:
|
Selected Monoline Credit
Card Companies
Range |
Selected Monoline Credit
Card Companies
Median |
Selected Bank Credit
Card Issuers
Range |
Selected Bank Credit
Card Issuers
Median |
Providian
(IBES
Estimates) |
Providian
(Capital Plan May Forecast) |
2005E-2006E Earnings Growth |
8.1%–11.5% |
9.8% |
5.9%–15.5% |
9.5% |
8.5% |
6.7% |
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs calculated and compared stock price to
IBES earnings estimates for the period beginning January 1, 2002 and
ended June 3, 2005, for each of MBNA Corporation, Capital One
Financial Corp. and Providian. The following table presents the high,
low and median multiples and the multiples as of June 3, 2005
resulting from this analysis:
|
MBNA |
Capital One Financial |
Providian (1) |
High |
17.3x |
18.3x |
30.9x |
Median |
12.8 |
11.6 |
14.1 |
Low |
8.0 |
6.1 |
8.5 |
June 3, 2005 |
10.4 |
10.8 |
11.3 |
(1) Excludes price to forward earnings for Providian through April of
2002 as not meaningful because median IBES consensus estimates ranged
from $0.00 to $0.03.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs compared the historical total shareholder
returns (calculated as the change in share price plus dividends) for
the shares of Providian common stock and the common stock of each of
MBNA Corporation and Capital One Financial Corp. for the three-year,
one-year and year-to-date periods ended June 3, 2005. The following
table presents the results of this analysis:
|
MBNA |
Capital One Financial |
Providian |
Three-Year Total Return |
(5.4)% |
24.6% |
130.0% |
One-Year Total Return |
(14.8) |
9.9 |
29.6 |
Year-to-Date 2005 Total Return |
(24.2) |
(11.0) |
9.0 |
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs also compared the share price appreciation
for the shares of Providian common stock to the common stock of each
of MBNA Corporation and Capital One Financial Corp. and also to the
average for the selected bank credit card issuers for the period from
January 1, 2002 through June 3, 2005. The following table presents the
results of this analysis.
|
MBNA |
Capital One Financial |
Selected Bank Credit Card Issuers |
Providian |
Share Price Appreciation for Period 1/1/2002 – 6/3/2005 |
(9.4 )% |
38.9 % |
14.7 % |
405.9 % |
Selected Precedent Transactions Analysis. Citigroup
and Goldman Sachs analyzed certain information relating to the
following selected transactions in the specialty finance industry
since January 1, 2002, which are divided into three groups:
Date Announced |
Acquirer |
Target |
Credit Card Company Sales |
|
|
August 18, 2004 |
Barclays PLC |
Juniper Financial Corporation |
February 3, 2004 |
Royal Bank of Scotland Group |
People’s Bank |
July 15, 2003 |
Citigroup Inc. |
Sears, Roebuck & Co. Card Services |
Other Specialty Finance Transactions |
|
|
November 14, 2002 |
HSBC Holdings plc |
Household International, Inc. |
Providian Master Trust |
|
|
January 15, 2002 |
JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
Providian Master Trust |
With respect to the financial information for the targets involved in
the precedent transactions, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs relied on
information from public filings, company press releases and investor
presentations, as well as information published by Securities Data
Corp. and SNL DataSource.
For each of the selected transactions, to the extent applicable,
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs calculated and compared:
• the implied ratio of the price paid for the target in the
transaction to:
(a) tangible book value of the target, based on the latest publicly
available financial statements of the target available prior to the
announcement of the acquisition;
(b) earnings of the target for the latest twelve months (“LTM”) of
results publicly available prior to the time the transaction was
announced; and
(c) estimated earnings of the target for the fiscal year in which the
transaction was announced (“Estimated FY1”); and
• the implied premium represented by the price paid for the target in
the transaction to:
(a) the closing price per common share of the target one month prior
to the announcement of the transaction; and
(b) the target’s managed receivables (calculated as the price paid
less the tangible book value of the target divided by the latest
publicly available managed receivables of the target prior to the
announcement of the acquisition).
The following table presents the results of this analysis for the
selected transactions:
|
Price/ Tangible Book |
Price/ LTM EPS |
Price /
FY1 EPS |
Premium/Market |
Premium/Managed Receivables |
Credit Card Company Sales |
|
|
|
|
|
Barclays PLC / Juniper Financial Corporation |
NA |
NA |
NA |
NA |
15.2% |
Royal Bank of Scotland Group / People’s Bank |
3.3x |
NA |
NA |
NA |
15.5 |
Citigroup Inc. / Sears, Roebuck & Co. Card Services |
2.7x |
7.3x |
NA |
NA |
16.0 |
Other Specialty Finance Transactions |
|
|
|
|
|
HSBC plc / Household International, Inc. |
2.0x |
6.8x |
7.0x |
6.9% |
6.6% |
ProvidianMaster Trust |
|
|
|
|
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co. / Providian Master Trust |
NA |
NA |
NA |
NA |
5.0% |
Selected Precedent Credit Card Portfolio Sales Analysis.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs calculated the percentage premium paid
over the aggregate amount of managed receivables in selected credit
card receivables portfolio transactions since 1996 involving
receivables greater than $2 billion. These percentage premiums were
then applied to Providian’s aggregate amount of managed receivables.
In order to derive an implied per share valuation for Providian, the
resulting amount was increased by tangible equity and loan loss
reserves (net of estimated deferred tax assets). The following table
presents the results of this analysis:
Selected Credit Card Portfolio Transactions
|
Range |
Median |
Premium to Managed Receivables |
6.5% – 22.0% |
13.3% |
Implied Valuation per Providian Share |
$ 12.90 – $21.06 |
$16.45 |
The range of per share values resulting from this analysis compares to
the implied value for the merger consideration of $18.71 per share of
Providian common stock (based on the closing price of Washington
Mutual’s common stock on June 3, 2005). The range of percentage
premiums to managed receivables resulting from this analysis compares
to the 18.4% premium over Providian’s managed receivables as of March
31, 2005 represented by the implied per share value of the merger
consideration.
Dividend Discount Analyses. Citigroup and Goldman
Sachs performed comparative dividend discount analyses to generate
reference ranges for the implied present value per share of Providian
common stock (1) assuming Providian continued to operate as a
standalone company and (2) on a pro forma equivalent basis giving
effect to the merger. They also performed this analysis for Washington
Mutual common stock assuming Washington Mutual continued to operate as
a standalone company.
These reference ranges were determined in each case by calculating the
present value of the estimated future dividend stream of Providian,
Washington Mutual and the combined company, respectively, for the
years 2005 through 2010, plus the present value of the estimated
terminal value of the common stock of Providian, Washington Mutual and
the combined company, respectively, as of the end of calendar year
2010.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs estimated reference ranges for the implied
present value per share of Providian common stock, on a standalone
basis, using the following alternative assumptions regarding the
future performance of Providian:
• IBES EPS estimates for fiscal years 2005 and 2006; estimated EPS
growth at the IBES long-term growth rate of 13.0% annually (or at
alternative long-term growth rates of 12.0% and 14.0%) for 2007
through 2011; and no payment of dividends (the “Providian Street
Case”); and, alternatively,
• the Capital Plan May Forecast EPS estimates for fiscal years 2005
and 2006; estimated EPS growth at assumed long-term growth rates of
5.0%, 7.5% and 10.0% annually for 2007 through 2011; and no payment of
dividends (the “Capital Plan May Case”).
In each of the above cases, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs used the
following assumptions:
• a terminal value of Providian common stock at the end of 2010 based
on a range of price to earnings multiples of 10.0x to 12.0x applied to
year 2011 projected earnings; and
• a range of discount rates of 10.0% to 14.0%.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs also estimated reference ranges for the
implied present value per share of Washington Mutual common stock, on
a standalone basis, using the following assumptions:
• IBES EPS estimates for fiscal years 2005 and 2006;
• estimated EPS growth at the IBES long-term growth rate of 10.0%
annually (or at alternative long-term growth rates of 9.0% and 11.0%)
for 2007 through 2011;
• to the extent Washington Mutual’s tangible common equity to tangible
assets (“TCE/TA”) ratio exceeds 5.5%, the excess capital would be used
to repurchase common stock;
• increases in the Washington Mutual common stock dividend rate of
$0.01 in each quarter over the prior quarter;
• a terminal value of Washington Mutual common stock at the end of
2010 based on a range of price to earnings multiples of 10.0x to 12.0x
applied to year 2011 projected earnings; and
• a range of discount rates of 8.0% to 10.0%.
This analysis resulted in a reference range for the implied present
value per share of Washington Mutual common stock, on a standalone
basis, of $48.79 to $60.82.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs then estimated reference ranges for the
implied present value per share of Washington Mutual’s common stock on
a pro forma equivalent basis after giving effect to the merger (which
is referred to as the “combined company”), using the following
assumptions:
• pro forma EPS estimates for fiscal years 2006 through 2011 with
respect to Washington Mutual based on IBES estimates of EPS and EPS
growth as adjusted by Providian’s management to reflect the effects of
the merger;
• increases in the Washington Mutual common stock dividend rate of
$0.01 in each quarter over the prior quarter;
• to the extent the combined company’s TCE/TA ratio exceeds 5.5%, the
excess capital would be used to repurchase common stock;
• a terminal value of combined company common stock at the end of 2010
based on a range of price to earnings multiples of 10.0x to 12.0x
applied to year 2011 projected earnings, reflecting the weighted
average of Providian and Washington Mutual multiples based on net
income contribution; and
• a range of discount rates of 8.0% to 10.0%, reflecting the weighted
average of Providian and Washington Mutual net income contribution.
Citigroup and Goldman Sachs calculated the pro forma implied present
value per share of Providian common stock, giving effect to the
merger, by adding the following amounts: (i) the pro forma values per
combined company share, multiplied by 0.40 (representing 89% of the
merger exchange ratio of 0.45, to reflect the portion of the merger
consideration to be paid in the form of shares of Washington Mutual
common stock), and (ii) the discounted cash component of the merger
consideration (representing 11% of the merger exchange ratio of 0.45),
calculated based on the estimated price per share of Washington Mutual
common stock at the closing of the merger, which was assumed to take
place on December 31, 2005. This estimated price per share was
determined by applying the current trading multiple for Washington
Mutual common stock to Washington Mutual’s IBES estimated 2006 EPS.
The following table presents the results of these analyses with
respect to Providian:
|
Range of Implied Values Per Providian Share |
Providian (applying Providian Street Case) |
$15.96 to $21.29 |
Providian (applying Capital Plan May Case) |
$10.75 to $16.56 |
Providian (pro forma for merger) |
$22.67 to $28.56 |
Portfolio Valuation Analysis—Providian. Citigroup and
Goldman Sachs performed comparative portfolio valuation analyses to
generate reference ranges for the implied present value per share of
Providian common stock (1) assuming Providian continued to operate as
a standalone company (the “Status Quo Case”) and (2) assuming
Providian were to merge with a strategic partner (the “Strategic
Case”). Based on certain assumptions reviewed with Providian
management, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs developed a range of valuation
outputs based on the implied present value per share of Providian’s
existing portfolio (the “Existing Portfolio Value per Share”) and
Providian’s new loan originations (the “New Originations Value per
Share”).
The following table presents the results of this analysis:
Summary of Portfolio Valuation Output
|
Status Quo Case |
Strategic Case |
Existing Portfolio Value per Share |
$12.20 – $14.04 |
$16.54 – $17.64 |
New Originations Value per Share |
$ 0.07 – $ 1.82 |
$ 0.20 – $ 2.42 |
Pro Forma Merger Analysis. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs
analyzed the pro forma impact of the merger on projected EPS for
Washington Mutual, based upon earnings estimates from IBES for
Providian and synergies for Providian prepared by Providian’s
management as well as earnings estimates from IBES for Washington
Mutual. The effect on EPS was calculated using various assumptions,
including the following:
• the consideration is 89% Washington Mutual stock and 11% cash;
• the transaction closing date is in the fourth quarter of 2005;
• the conversion of Providian’s 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes due May
2008 and 2.75% Convertible Cash to Accreting Senior Notes due March
2016 into shares of Washington Mutual common stock at $18.71 (based on
the closing price of Washington Mutual’s common stock of $41.57 per
share on June 3, 2005);
• pre-tax cost operational synergies of $85.2 million in 2006, $229.2
million in 2007 and $347.6 million in 2008;
• pre-tax funding benefits of $9.0 million in 2006, $18.4 million in
2007 and $23.4 million in 2008;
• pre-tax income accretion from mark-to-market of deposits of $29.6
million in 2006, $18.9 million in 2007 and $12.1 million in 2008;
• a pre-tax restructuring charge of $95 million, phased in 50% in 2006
and 100% in 2007; and
• amortization of approximately $135 million after tax per year of
purchase price premium attributed to identifiable intangibles over
seven years.
For each of the years 2006, 2007 and 2008, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs
compared the EPS of Washington Mutual common stock to the EPS, on both
a GAAP basis and a cash basis, of the combined company common stock
using the foregoing assumptions. The following table sets forth the
results of this analysis:
|
GAAP Basis
Accretion / (Dilution) |
Cash Basis
Accretion / (Dilution) |
2006E EPS |
(1.2)% |
2.0% |
2007E EPS |
1.4 |
4.2 |
2008E EPS |
3.2 |
5.8 |
In addition to the financial analyses described above, Citigroup and
Goldman Sachs also reviewed the competitive environment of the U.S.
credit card industry in terms of increasing market share concentration
among the top five and top ten credit card issuers; the relative size
and scale of large U.S. credit card issuers (as measured by market
capitalization, total equity, credit rating and senior unsecured
credit spreads); recent trends in receivables growth for the credit
card industry; and volume and response rates for credit card mail
solicitations.
Conclusion:
Based on our review of publicly available information on
strategic, financial and business integration aspects of the proposed
transaction, as well as various integration risks attending the
merger, Egan-Jones, views the proposed merger as an undesirable
approach to maximizing shareholder value. We believe that the proposed
merger is not in the best interest of the Company and its shareholders
because of the following factors: (i) the merger consideration
value per share is inadequate; given an implied per share merger
consideration value of approximately $18.71, the acquisition price as
of June 3, 2005 represented only an approximate 4% percent premium
over the closing price of Providian shares on the New York Stock
Exchange as of that date, a 9.1% premium over the average closing
price of Providian shares on the New York Stock Exchange for the prior
month and a 44.7% premium over Providian’s fifty-two week low closing
price; (ii) in light of the inadequacy of the implied value of the
merger consideration, we are also critical of the fact that the
Company failed to approach other potential acquirers which might well
have agreed to pay a higher consideration value, before the Company
agreed to the non-solicitation provision; and (iii) lastly, given the
inadequate merger consideration value, we are troubled that some
of Providian’s executive officers and directors have interests in the
merger and have arrangements that are different from, or in addition
to, those of Providian stockholders generally and which in particular
would likely financially benefit them. Accordingly, we
recommend that clients holding shares of Providian Financial
Corporation vote "AGAINST" this Proposal.
The shareholders are being asked to approve an adjournment of the
special meeting, if necessary, to solicit additional proxies if there
are insufficient votes at the time of the special meeting to adopt the
merger agreement. However, we believe that the proposed merger
transaction in Proposal 1 is not in the best interest of the Company
and its shareholders. As such, we recommend a
vote "AGAINST" this Proposal. |