THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Life
|
Ideas
|
The Saturday Essay
The Uberization of Money
The familiar middlemen of 20th-century banking and investing are
giving way to something very different. Are we ready for the
opportunities—and the risks?
Over the next decade, the familiar 20th-century modes of banking
and investing will give way to something very different. We are
on the verge of the Uberization of finance, which will bring
multiple new opportunities but also a range of new risks.
PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES |
By
Zachary Karabell
Nov. 6, 2015 1:38 p.m. ET
Imagine that you want to
buy a home. You might find a real-estate agent to show you around,
which is a very 20th-century way of doing things. Or you might go 21st
century and use the Web to research prices and available properties
and to take a few virtual tours.
When it comes time to
buy, however, you will probably revert to procedures that were created
in your grandparents’ era. You will assemble financial documents and
present them to a loan officer at a bank, who will take weeks to
determine what you can borrow and at what rate and then present you
with a narrow menu of costly options.
Imagine instead a simple
online interface that could generate a tailored credit score for you,
taking into account your future earning potential based on your
education and location. It would connect you to lenders ranging from
banks and credit unions to pools of individuals who want to lend
privately at a negotiated rate for whatever duration you agree on. You
could shop around, combine different types of financing and arrange a
mortgage package that best suits you, all within a few hours.
We aren’t quite there
yet, but we may be soon. Over the next decade, the familiar
20th-century modes of banking and investing will give way to something
very different. We are on the verge of the Uberization of finance,
which will bring multiple new opportunities but also a range of new
risks.
The ubiquitous
ride-sharing company uses a simple device—the smartphone—to connect
people who want rides with people who want to drive them. Uber is a
high-tech middleman that is making the intermediaries of the past
obsolete. The financial world is one of the most mediated industries
on the planet, and that is precisely what is about to change.
Uberization also means using vast amounts of data to make those
connections feasible.
Technology is one source
of this shift, but so is legislation. The
JOBS Act of 2012
contained a seemingly innocuous provision making it easier for
startups to raise money from investors previously deemed too poor to
dabble in such ventures. At the end of October, the Securities and
Exchange Commission finally approved the rules, which will go into
full effect early next year. As a result, any company or person with
an idea can solicit and raise up to $1 million without most of the
onerous regulatory and reporting requirements of the past.
So what lies ahead?
Retail banking is the one area of the financial world that has
undergone tremendous change over the past decade. Bank tellers are now
scarce, and many consumers use smartphones for payments and deposits.
It also has become much easier to trade shares online.
But core services such
as lending money, raising capital and investing for clients still
depend on a firm to act as a conduit—and as a choke point. With many
promising startups already launched and with venture capital funding
new ones every day, here’s a glimpse of what we can expect in the
years ahead.
Hey buddy, can you spare
a loan?
The most immediate
change will be an explosion in peer-to-peer lending. Just as Uber
returns us to a world where anyone with a car could offer a ride to
anyone with a thumb, peer-to-peer lending is both new and old. Before
there was a robust retail and commercial banking system, there were
people with money to lend and people who wanted to borrow it. But the
current wave of peer-to-peer services takes this much further, into a
hypercharged virtual realm where pools of small lenders can combine
online to disperse pools of small loans. And they can do it without
the friction, cost or heavy regulatory hurdles of traditional banking.
There are already many
players in this field, such as Lending Club and Prosper, but most are
already a decade old—ancient by tech standards. With less than $7
billion in loans in 2014, they are tiny in the multi-trillion-dollar
lending world. Now the sector is showing explosive growth.
PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that it could be a $150 billion
business by 2025.
The downside is that
peer-to-peer interest rates are higher than at mainstream banks,
sometimes well into the teens. The upside is that people who need
modest sums (one site caps them at $35,000) can easily obtain funds
from small individual lenders looking for a high return. What makes it
attractive for lenders is that they can spread their capital over far
more loans than any one peer could make to another peer, which reduces
their risk.
And the options are
proliferating. Venture capitalists clearly believe that nontraditional
lending will be a huge market, especially for millennials who, in
survey after survey, express distrust and disdain for traditional
banks. New companies such as SoFi (which has raised more than $1
billion) are focusing on individual loans at even lower costs and on
the student market, helping people to refinance their loan packages.
SoFi is also rapidly moving into mortgage refinancing, another area
where traditional banks and government have been, to put it mildly,
sluggish.
If you build it, they
will come.
Lending money to
businesses remains a pillar of the financial sector. Yet credit
standards, judging by Federal Reserve surveys of loan officers, remain
much tighter than before the financial crisis of 2008-09. That may be
prudent, but it has had a chilling effect on business creation. The
U.S. is now 12th in the world in new business creation, according to
Gallup, and significantly fewer new businesses are started today than
in the 1970s, when the U.S. population was much smaller.
Loans to large companies
are up over the past decade, but lending to small business has
contracted, from more than $700 billion in 2008 to less than $600
billion today, according to the Small Business Administration. As for
the Silicon Valley ecosystem of venture capital, it certainly doles
out funds to dreamers, but it excludes many types of businesses,
especially brick-and-mortar ones.
All of this explains why
new funding ventures have received such a boost from the JOBS Act.
Kickstarter is the most familiar, with Indiegogo close behind. These
crowdfunding platforms let almost anyone announce an idea and solicit
money for it, usually in chunks of $1,000 or less. No established
venture-capital firm or large bank would dole out such small amounts.
Their overhead alone, for due diligence and compliance, would mean
steep losses on investments that size.
But the new crowdfunding
sites remove those layers, and for now they have few of the regulatory
burdens or scrutiny. It is the Wild West of fundraising. The most
recent success was Oculus Rift, a maker of virtual reality headsets
that raised $2.4 million on Kickstarter and then was bought by
Facebook
a
little more than a year later for $2 billion.
The big hitch? A
Kickstarter contribution is a donation. When people fund projects on
the site, it is out of passion for the product, not any hope for a
financial return.
The next wave of
crowdfunding, through sites such as SeedInvest and Fundable, will
offer equity ownership to those who throw money into the ring. This
new model could upend the insular world of venture capital and
business loans while at the same time providing new opportunities for
small investors. As for a would-be innovator, if you can post an idea
online, raise a million dollars for it and (most important) choose how
much equity you want to part with at what valuation, why go through
the gauntlet of a commercial loan application or make the rounds at
the VC firms on Sand Hill Road?
The result is likely to
be billions of dollars of new funding, which would spur lots of good
ideas—and lots of bad ones, too. The prospect of unconventional new
funding sources has already prompted comparisons to 1999, when
millions of individual investors joined the IPO craze only to see
their shares of Pets.com become worthless. Such risks are very real,
but either way, much more money will be in motion.
What’s a broker?
The traditional model
for buying and selling stocks, managing a portfolio and handling
assets for retirement was to pay someone else to do it. The next model
will be to use Web-based technology to do it yourself or to work in
conjunction with experts online.
One of the hottest areas
of fundraising in the financial world is a panoply of online
wealth-management companies offering a range of services. Their assets
are tiny today, not much more than $20 billion. But they have
attracted attention and funding because they, too, threaten to disrupt
the traditional modes.
Betterment, Wealthfront,
Personal Capital and other “robo advisers,” though still marginal in
terms of assets, have shaken the wealth-management market. Especially
for smaller accounts, they offer basic asset allocation and investing
services for a fraction of the ordinary fees. Fund behemoths such as
Vanguard and online brokers such as Schwab also have developed and
unrolled their own digital advisory services.
Then there is the rise
of exchange-traded funds, which are challenging actively managed
mutual funds, especially those that charge high fees to deliver the
same returns as an index. More than 1,500 ETFs now account for $2
trillion in U.S. assets.
Change will also arrive
in the way that stocks and bonds are sold. The 20th-century model has
already given way to the online world of ETrade and Schwab, but those
models are being challenged, too. Newer digital entrants can offer
fractional shares of both stocks and bonds. Bond trading in particular
is still controlled by a small number of dealers in the belly of
traditional Wall Street for high, opaque fees.
Those who profit purely
by facilitating simple financial transactions are increasingly
hard-pressed to compete when many of those transactions can be done
for nearly zero cost. The traditional investment banks are already
seeing profits from their trading desks plummet. Bond business for
Goldman Sachs
was down 33% last quarter, and its rivals didn’t fare much better.
The trend ahead is worse
for these legacy firms. If they offer a service that is not easily
automated, they can thrive. If not, look out. Why pay a broker a hefty
commission if the same purchase can be done online for pennies? Why
pay a human adviser who does no more than cookie-cutter asset
allocation? Why pay an active mutual fund if it only offers index
returns?
The developing financial
landscape will include more creative ways to save and invest, more
ways to buy and sell stocks and bonds, and more demand for better
advice, delivered interactively online.
Stocks aren’t just for
them.
For the past century and
a half, every bubble that has burst in the equities market has been
followed by a long period of retrenchment. Individuals get burned and
then avoid exposure to future losses. That happened after the Great
Depression and after 1999, and it is happening now in the wake of the
financial crisis. Equity markets have gone up and up since March 2009,
but retail investors have been largely on the sidelines.
But what if the next
wave of stock ownership isn’t just trading your own account, but
stocks as a form of affiliation with brands? What if that
Starbucks
card came not just with a free latte after 10 purchases but a share of
Starbucks after 100? And what if the maker of that cool new device,
the
GoPro
of
tomorrow, could offer its shares directly to its avid users instead of
having to rely on investment banks to dole out the shares?
Several Silicon Valley
startups are already attacking the problem. Loyal3 aims to connect
public companies to loyal customers who want to buy shares as early as
the IPO, while EquityZen and others do the same for private companies.
The idea of directly marketing shares to customers is old, but the new
wave makes it far easier—at the click of a button—and cheaper. If
these novel ways of buying and distributing shares take off, it could
turn stock ownership into a more universal phenomenon.
Providing financial
services to the less well-off and the unbanked is also an area seeing
considerable investment interest and activity. ZestFinance, founded by
former Google executives and flush with venture capital, uses big data
to offset the inherent risks. It is just one of many new ventures in
this field, which promises to open hitherto closed spigots of capital
to all classes, not just the middle and upper.
It is easy, of course,
to forecast a new world of money in motion and all of the benefits it
may entail. These innovations are almost all products of the last five
years, after the financial crisis. They might look less promising if
the tide suddenly goes out again. A large institution can survive a
bad investment; an individual of modest means won’t so easily weather
a complete wipeout on a peer-to-peer loan.
Whatever the risks,
however, the Uberization of finance is no fad or stunt. Many of
today’s startups may implode, as most do, but the spread and
democratization of capital—and the proliferation and analysis of
data—are irresistible trends. They will offer new opportunities to
millions of people, entrepreneurs and investors alike. They also will
unlock a vast amount of money, energy and talent, and to that we
simply should say, bring it on.
Mr. Karabell is head of
global strategy at Envestnet, a financial services firm, and the
author of “The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers that
Rule Our World.”
|