Special Situations
Research Forum
Nov 27 2018
HC2 Holdings (HCHC)
HC2 Holdings is a conglomerate of
businesses run by Philip Falcone and appears undervalued.
Meeting notes
HCHC started out as a NOL shell with a
good capital allocator at the helm.
Its main business segments are
Construction
– Schuff International – DB global – design and fabrication steel
business. One of the two cash flow generators. ~$50 mill EBITDA.
Greywolf acquisition added ~$20 mill EBITDA. Mult 6-8x EBITDA less
debt or ~$400 mill valuation. EBITDA is proforma.
Global Marine
– Subsea cable installation and maintenance, Oil platforms. Trying to
sell this business. About $45 mil EBITDA. Mid 6x mult on EBITDA les
debt so about ~$200 equity for their ownership. Maybe they were trying
to dangle the sale of this business to get the bond deal done.
Insurance
– Long-term care. Insurance from sellers where losses exceed the
underwritten premium. Insurance books bought at cheap prices. Get
float. Long-term care industry priced premiums low in relation to the
expected coverage so potential to increase prices. Even if insurance
losses substantially exceed equity the loss is limited to equity.
Broadcasting stations – low power
stations
Biotech business – promising medical
devices or drugs. Invested $8 mill and sold for potentially $1 bill.
$130 mill and about 85% are mile stone payments so they are like CVR.
Small investment round valuing it at $150 mill.
Recent bond deal and per Moodys –
tightest covenant deal. Trading at 94, 11.5% coupon, 3 year. Bond
perspective covered 2x asset. If they can get their asset sale done.
IRR of low twenties.
Equity reacted downward to the convert
deal. Done on reverse inquiry because they were having difficulty
getting the bond deal done. Technical of convert issuance, equity gets
shorted when a convert is issued.
Debt of $525 at the Holdco level and
$200 at the individual company level.
Bloated corporate expenses at $25 to
$30 mill.
Down case – Recession – over levered
businesses equity could be zero
Base case – businesses stay the same so
potentially a double.
Falcone banned from 2013 – 2018.
Security industry borrowed funds to pay taxes . Equity maybe fairly
priced because of management discount.
Long 2, Short 0, Pass 4 or interested
in the bond |