For a Verizon press release reporting
the analysis below, see
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Light
Reading, August 7, 2007 report
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Carrier Scorecard: Verizon Makes the
Grade |
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AUGUST 07, 2007 |
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We're kicking
off the latest edition of the North American Carrier Scorecard by
handing out our highest grade yet. Each quarter, Light Reading
publishes scorecards on the world's most influential publicly held
carriers, giving them a grade of A
through F based on their
financial and business performance. Our previous North American carrier
scorecard is right here:
Carrier Scorecard: Ma Bell's Metamorphosis.
Receiving a grade of A is
tough. You need to show strong growth across the board and obvious
momentum for the future. But, as you see, it can be done:
Verizon: A-
We had been lenient with
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:
VZ -
message board) in previous quarters because we understood that its
profits and margins were down due to the enormous cost of FiOS, and it's
hard to discredit a company for making a huge investment in its future.
Now, with net income on the rise again and the continued steady
growth in revenue, it seems only appropriate to give Verizon the
first-ever grade in the A
range. Its FiOS service roared past the 1 million mark in Internet
subscribers and just inched past half a million TV subscribers. The
company's stock is now trading near its 52-week high and outperformed
the S&P 500 in the second quarter by more than 4 percent.
There is, however, some risk to consider in future quarters. Much of
Verizon's strength came from wireless, and with AT&T launching the
iPhone we'll see if it can hold onto its customers while Apple and AT&T
ramp up the marketing.
Table 1: Verizon's Q2 2007 Scorecard
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2Q07 |
2Q06 |
Q/Q Change |
Revenue (Millions) |
$23,273 |
$21,886 |
+6.3% |
Earnings (Millions) |
$1,683 |
$1,611 |
+4.5% |
GAAP EPS |
$0.58 |
$0.55 |
+5.5% |
Access Lines |
43,288,000 |
46,950,000 |
-7.8% |
Broadband Subscribers |
7,686,000 |
6,125,000 |
+25.5% |
Video Subscribers** |
1,300,000 |
n/a |
n/a |
**515,000 FiOS TV subscribers
and 785,000 DirecTV subscribers |
AT&T: B-
We're still waiting 'til 2008 before we can really make sense of
AT&T Inc. (NYSE:
T -
message board)'s quarterly performance. By then, its growth numbers
won't be inflated by the fact that it's including a whole other
company's worth of revenues and earnings this year that it wasn't
counting last year.
U-verse is expanding its subscriber base; it now has 51,000, compared
to 3,000 at the end of last year, and if the company hits its target of
doing 10,000 installations per week by the end of this year, then it'll
quiet some of its skeptics.
And then there's wireless. AT&T has the iPhone in its arsenal, which
is selling well and bringing in a lot of new subscribers -- but at what
cost? The fees that AT&T must pay
Apple Inc. (Nasdaq:
AAPL -
message board) for being its exclusive carrier seem to keep mounting
every week. (See
iPhone Revenues Flow in Three Streams.)
While Apple's stock surged in anticipation of the iPhone, AT&T
performed the worst out of the four carriers we're grading. It grew 5.16
percent -- just a bit behind the performance of the S&P 500.
Table 2: AT&T's Q2 2007 Scorecard
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2Q07 |
2Q06 |
Q/Q Change |
Revenue (Millions) |
$29,478 |
$15,770 |
+86.9% |
Earnings (Millions) |
$2,904 |
$1,808 |
+60.6% |
GAAP EPS |
$0.47 |
$0.46 |
+2.2% |
Access Lines |
32,159,000 |
22,310,000 |
+44.1% |
Broadband Subscribers |
11,260,000 |
6,571,000 |
+71.4% |
Video Subscribers* |
1,897,000 |
590,000 |
+221.5% |
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* In 2007, 51,000 are U-Verse
subscribers and 1,846,000 are DISH Network subscribers sold through
AT&T. In 2006 all video subsribers are Dish Network
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Qwest: C-
We're done making excuses for
Qwest Communications International Inc. (NYSE:
Q -
message board). It was the same old story this quarter as the
company more than doubled earnings on flat revenues, thanks to its cost
cutting.
Broadband subscribers were up more than 30 percent, and enterprise
revenues are going up, on the heels of Qwest's inclusion in the U.S.
government's Networx contract. But where AT&T and Verizon use wireless
to bring in big revenues, Qwest uses it to prevent the loss of revenues.
Everyone else is on the attack against cable while Qwest plays defense.
That strategy doesn't look as if it'll change anytime soon, as
outgoing CEO Dick Notebaert was very adamant that the company will
continue to revolve its video and wireless strategies around
partnerships with
DirecTV Group Inc. (NYSE:
DTV -
message board) and
Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE:
S -
message board). (See
Qwest CEO: No Need for New U-verse.) Those aren't bad partnerships,
because it's revenue returned on nearly zero invested capital.
But how much longer can it keep its customers interested with no new
services? That'll be up to the new CEO to figure out.
Table 3: Qwest's Q2 2007 Scorecard
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2Q07 |
2Q06 |
Q/Q Change |
Revenue (Millions) |
$3,463 |
$3,472 |
-0.26% |
Earnings (Millions) |
$240 |
$117 |
+105.13% |
GAAP EPS |
$0.13 |
$0.06 |
+116.67% |
Access Lines |
13,272 |
14,283 |
-7.08% |
Broadband Subscribers |
2,405,000 |
1,798,000 |
+33.76% |
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Bell Canada: B+
It was an extremely flat quarter for
BCE Inc. (Bell Canada) (NYSE/Toronto:
BCE -
message board). Revenue and income hardly went anywhere, and
broadband growth was below 10 percent.
Normally, such mediocre results would get a mediocre grade. But then
there's that whole deal to take Bell Canada private. (See
Bell Canada Goes Private.) The price the Ontario Teacher's Pension
Plan is paying for the company is a 40 percent premium over the
company's share price before it was public knowledge it was pursuing
strategic alternatives.
When you give your shareholders a 40 percent return on their
investment, that's a good thing, right? Let's see if they can close the
deal. (See
Telus Still a Factor in Bell Canada Buyout.)
Table 4: Bell Canada's Q2 2007 Scorecard
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2Q07 |
2Q06 |
Q/Q Change |
Revenue (Millions -
CAD) |
$4,438 |
$4,374 |
+1.46% |
Earnings (Millions -
CAD) |
$898 |
$894 |
+0.45% |
GAAP EPS |
$0.56 |
$0.54 |
+3.70% |
Access Lines |
8,524,000 |
8,638,000 |
-1.32% |
Broadband Subscribers |
1,959,000 |
1,785,000 |
+9.75% |
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— Raymond McConville, Reporter,
Light Reading |
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Copyright © 2000-2007 CMP
Media LLC - All rights reserved.
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