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Is the Dell Stub the Right Investment for You?: Real M&A
By Tara Lachapelle, Brooke Sutherland & Miles Weiss - Mar 26, 2013
11:08 PM ET |
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Blackstone Group LP (BX) and
Carl Icahn’s bids for
Dell Inc. (DELL) are employing a rarely used deal tactic that has
yielded both big payouts and big losses for shareholders.
The offers allowing
investors to retain stock in the floundering personal-computer maker may
help them win over shareholders like Southeastern Asset Management Inc.,
who want the chance to make more money alongside buyers. Still, investors
must be prepared to take on the risk of potential losses as the firms seek
to turn the Round Rock, Texas-based company into a contender in tablets
and cloud computing, said Scott Rostan, a former M&A analyst whose New
York-based firm Training the Street teaches new hires at banks about
mergers.
So-called stub equity “may
appeal to investors with a longer time horizon and a higher risk-reward
tolerance,” Rostan said in a telephone interview. “But with potential
reward obviously comes risk, and it’s going to take years to turn around
Dell.”
Clear Channel
Communications Inc. shareholders are still waiting for a payout with the
stock down
84 percent since private-equity firms Bain Capital LLC and Thomas H.
Lee Partners LP closed a deal for the company in 2008, when a slump in the
economy and radio advertising sales deepened, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, KKR & Co. handed investors who retained shares of
Amphenol Corp. (APH) a 103 percent gain in the first year following
the 1997 purchase of a majority of the cable-television equipment
business.
Go-Shop Period
Blackstone and Icahn
submitted proposals to Dell’s board on March 22, the deadline of the
so-called go-shop period designed to solicit competing bids. Dell said
March 25 that the proposals may be superior to the already agreed-upon
$24.4 billion buyout offer from founder
Michael Dell and private-equity firm Silver Lake Management LLC.
Blackstone’s plan values
Dell at more than $14.25 a share, while Icahn would pay $15 a share in
cash for as much as 58.1 percent of the stock. Under both plans, the
buyers will borrow money to help fund the transaction, and some shares may
continue to be publicly traded, giving current shareholders a choice
between cash and stock. Blackstone didn’t specify its cap on the equity
portion.
The special committee of
the Dell board of directors will be reviewing the proposals from Icahn and
New York-based Blackstone, according to
David Frink, a spokesman for the company. Chief Executive Officer
Michael Dell isn’t speaking publicly about the process, Frink said.
Dell Trading
Icahn didn’t respond to a
request for comment sent to his spokeswoman
Susan Gordon. Representatives for Blackstone and Silver Lake declined
to comment.
Even before the new
proposals were made public, Dell shares had been
trading above Michael Dell and Silver Lake’s offer of $13.65 a share.
Five analysts surveyed by
Bloomberg News earlier this month projected that the bid would be
increased to as much as $14.90 to $15 a share in order to win support from
minority shareholders, which need to approve the deal. The stock ended at
$14.50 yesterday.
“What shareholders are
telling you is that the floor is not $13.65,”
Louis Meyer, a special situations analyst with Oscar Gruss & Son Inc.,
said in a phone interview. “Just based on the reputation of Blackstone,
people are saying ‘I’m willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. My
floor is now $14.25.’”
For Blackstone and Icahn,
a leveraged recapitalization offers a cheaper alternative to a full
takeover, according to
James
Hill, who runs the private-equity practice at law firm Benesch,
Friedlander, Coplan & Aronoff LLP. It’s also a “hybrid of necessity” that
can help win shareholders’ approval, he said in a phone interview from
Cleveland.
‘Clever Way’
In the case of Dell, the
stub equity option also eliminates the need to incorporate Michael Dell’s
stake in a bid, according to
Erik Gordon, a business and law professor at the
University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.
“It’s a clever way of
possibly making this deal happen,” Gordon said in a phone interview. “This
is a way of dealing with Michael, and it gives them a way of dealing with
people who are screaming that any of these prices could be unfair.”
Icahn’s offer assumes that
Southeastern Asset Management and T. Rowe Price Group Inc., the largest
investors after Michael Dell, would contribute their stakes and won’t
receive a cash payment.
Southeastern Asset
Management has criticized the current $13.65-a-share deal, saying it
undervalues the computer maker. The firm, which has estimated Dell should
be valued at $24 a share, said March 25 that it’s pleased with the
proposals from Blackstone and Icahn, in part because of the option to keep
an equity stake.
Gains, Losses
A representative for
Southeastern Asset Management declined to comment further. Kylie Muratore,
a spokeswoman for T. Rowe Price, which also opposed the original buyout
plan, said yesterday that the firm isn’t commenting on Dell.
A leveraged
recapitalization with an equity stub allows stockholders “to share in the
gains and losses,”
Steven Kaplan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago’s
Booth School of Business, said in a phone interview. “For investors who
think the price is too low, that’s attractive.”
In 1997, Kohlberg Kravis
Roberts & Co., now known as KKR & Co., acquired a 75 percent stake in
Amphenol for $1.5 billion in cash and debt, while allowing shareholders to
retain a 25 percent stake in the coaxial cable manufacturer.
‘Our Cake’
When KKR sold the last of
its shares in 2004, the buyout firm said its $340 million investment in
Amphenol had returned $1.4 billion to KKR investors. The publicly traded
shares had more than
quadrupled by then. In a March 2001 report, Gabelli Asset Management
Inc. said that Amphenol showed the potential profits available from
investing in stubs.
“We have our cake in the
form of premiums paid by LBO groups to buy portfolio companies,” the asset
management firm wrote in the report. “Every now and then, we get to eat it
too, by holding on to stubs that allow us to participate, along with the
LBO group, in realizing a portfolio company’s full upside potential.”
While an equity stub has
the potential to unlock more value for Dell shareholders, they also have
to be prepared for the risks of a stake in what will be a highly leveraged
company, Gordon said.
“The leveraged recap
doesn’t make it easier to turn around the company,” he said. “If you stay
in the company, nobody has magic that makes your stock worth more unless
they turn the company around. You’ve got to really believe that that’s
going to happen.”
Clear Channel
Dell last year had
privately forecast that it would earn $5.6 billion in operating
income for 2014, a figure that is now going to come in around $3
billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. Dell is
struggling as consumers shun PCs and laptops in favor of tablets and
smartphones.
Steve Gerbel, founder and
president of Chicago Capital Management, a Chicago-based hedge fund
focused on merger arbitrage, said he recommends taking the certainty of
the cash offer for Dell because a turnaround could be lengthy as the
company’s business declines. He said his firm sold its Dell shares when
the stock surpassed $13.65.
In the buyout of Clear
Channel by Bain Capital and THL, shareholders were given the choice to
take either $36 a share in cash or one share of
CC Media Holdings Inc. (CCMO) -- a shell company created for the deal
-- for each Clear Channel share they owned. CC Media was offered as an
alternative form of payment when Bain Capital and THL cut the value of the
cash portion.
‘Struggled
Grievously’
Investors who have owned
CC Media since the $17.9 billion transaction closed in July 2008 have
lost 84 percent.
“If you’re a shareholder
and you felt that the deal was underpriced, you might want to hold onto
your shares rather than giving them up,”
Josh Lerner, a professor at
Harvard Business School who specializes in private equity, said in a
phone interview. “But clearly it involves making a substantial bet. With
the benefit of hindsight, we know that Clear Channel struggled grievously
subsequently.”
The stock drop had much
more to do with the timing of the transaction than the form of the deal,
said Jonathon Jacobson, the co-founder and CEO of Highfields Capital
Management LP, the money management firm that pushed for a public equity
stub at the time. The Clear Channel deal closed in 2008, when the U.S.
recession deepened and the radio advertising business dried up, Jacobson
said in a phone interview.
‘Different
World’
“It was a different
world,” said Jacobson, who currently serves as one of two independent
directors on Clear Channel’s board. “The advertising business and
radio business in particular fell off a cliff in 2008 and 2009 and has
since recovered, but not to pre-crisis levels.”
Concerns about Dell’s
viability may help explain Blackstone and Icahn’s motivations to pursue
leveraged recapitalizations, according to Peter Lobravico, New York-based
vice president of merger arbitrage trading and sales at Wall Street Access
Corp.
“The fact that you didn’t
get any all-cash bids during the go-shop is kind of confirmation that you
have to be a little bit careful with this thing,” Lobravico said in a
phone interview.
Offering stub equity
allows the acquirer to share the risk of the deal, said Pavel Savor, an
assistant professor of finance at the
University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia who has
published research on M&A. At the same time, offering stub equity also
eliminates some benefits of going private, such as no longer having to
file quarterly reports, he said.
Leveraged
Recapitalizations
While leveraged
recapitalizations were more commonly used by companies in the 1980s to
defend against hostile takeovers with added debt and more concentrated
stock holdings, private-equity firms eventually started using the tactic
to help secure shareholder support and reduce costs. Prior to an
accounting rule change in 2001, private-equity firms had more incentive to
carry out stub deals because it helped shield them from requirements to
write down goodwill, which is the portion of a takeover price that exceeds
the book value of the target’s assets.
In his letter to Dell’s
board, Icahn cited his partial takeover of
CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) as evidence of his track record. His firm
amassed an 82 percent
stake in the oil refiner last year after offering to acquire the
entire company. While investors that sold to him were paid $30 a share,
the remaining traded
shares ended yesterday at $51.19.
Mario Gabelli, the founder of Gamco Investors Inc., which oversees
more than $36 billion in assets, said yesterday in a phone interview that
his firm bought an arbitrage position in Dell when the buyout was first
announced. He said he’s yet to decide whether to take cash or retain a
stake in the computer company if that option became available.
“If a private-equity firm
like Blackstone has done their math right,” this is a way for a Dell
shareholder such as Southeastern “to get part of their money back or
participate in the ongoing success of the leveraged enterprise,” Gabelli
said.
To contact the reporters
on this story: Tara Lachapelle in
New York at
tlachapelle@bloomberg.net; Brooke Sutherland in New York at
bsutherland7@bloomberg.net; Miles Weiss in Washington at
mweiss@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor
responsible for this story: Sarah Rabil at
srabil@bloomberg.net
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