December 2, 2013 7:12 pm
Dell: fair appraisal
Despite
the protests, deal price may be the right price
Those hoping that
Dell
would slouch into private company obscurity are going to have to wait
a little longer. Carl Icahn backed off from his threat to seek
appraisal (a judicial review of the deal price) in the Delaware courts
but that
has not stopped
another set of investors, owning about 3 per cent of the
shares, from asking a judge to grant them more than the $13.75 per
share that a majority of shareholders approved. But the aggrieved
should beware. In a
recent appraisal
ruling involving the company that produces American Idol,
the judge said a well-negotiated deal price is as acceptable as one
that fancy analysis churns out.
Valuation, like vocal talent, is in the ear of the judge (one
hopefully less cruel than that of Simon Cowell). CKx, the producer of
American Idol, was taken private in 2011 at $5.50 a share. One
shareholder claimed, based on discounted cash flow analysis, that fair
value exceeded $9. But since it was unclear how much Fox would pay to
keep airing Idol, reliable forecasts did not exist. That, along
with the dearth of peer companies, led the judge to sanction the deal
price blessed by the board and a majority of shareholders as the best
indication of CKx’s fair value.
Dell’s projections were
scattered. Its bankers showed scenarios developed by Wall Street,
management and consultants all with varying views of personal computer
erosion and cost cuts. Assessing how much desktop computer demand would slip
and how much Dell’s new businesses would take off makes selecting the right
projections difficult. However, peer analysis might be a better tack for the
dissenters – Hewlett-Packard shares are up 80 per cent this year.
Even if the judge finds Dell’s $13.75 buyout price to be correct, appraisal
is still not a bad gambit. The rules dictate that 5.75 per cent per year be
tacked on to the judge’s price.
© The Financial Times Ltd 2013 |
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