THE
WALL STREET JOURNAL.
Markets
Buybacks Pump Up Stock Rally
Shares outstanding in the S&P 500 have fallen this year from
year-earlier levels, on track for the first yearly decline since
2011
Apple repurchased $6.7 billion of shares in the first quarter,
the second most behind Gilead Sciences’ $8 billion.
PHOTO: LUCY NICHOLSON/REUTERS |
By
Corrie Driebusch
and
Ben Eisen
July 12, 2016 6:50 p.m. ET
Records reached this week by major U.S. stock indexes underscore the
power of a popular but controversial tool: the corporate share
buyback.
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 121 points Tuesday, vaulting the
30-stock measure to its
first record close since May 2015,
joining the S&P 500, which notched its second record close in two
days.
Among the most prominent drivers of the 2016 stock rally has been
companies’ willingness to buy back shares. The strategy has been
embraced by firms and outside investors alike, because it drives up
share prices and improves per-share earnings by reducing the number of
shares outstanding. Some investors decry buybacks as financial
engineering.
Shares outstanding in the S&P 500 have fallen this year from
year-earlier levels, on track for the first yearly decline since 2011,
according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Companies in the S&P 500 bought
back $161.39 billion of shares during the first three months of the
year, the second-biggest quarter for repurchases ever.
While uneven economic growth, tumbling interest rates and a volatile
political climate will likely drive wide market swings in the second
half of 2016, portfolio managers said, buybacks appear to be providing
support for shares.
“Corporate demand for stocks has been very healthy, and there’s no
reason to believe it’s going to end anytime soon,” said David Goss,
managing director and head of proprietary strategies at money manager
Boston Private Wealth LLC.
Gilead Sciences
Inc.
spent the
most in the first quarter, at $8 billion, while
Apple Inc.
executed
$6.7 billion of repurchases, S&P Dow Jones Indices data show. Apple is
a member of the Dow but Gilead isn’t.
The
repurchasing spree doesn’t appear to be over. Companies have
authorized $357 billion in 2016 through the end of last month,
according to research firm Birinyi Associates. That is down 28% from a
year earlier, though it is unclear how much will be instituted until
firms report earnings.
Companies had $156 billion of unused authorizations at the beginning
of the second quarter, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Large share repurchases have come under scrutiny during the tepid U.S.
recovery from the financial crisis. Some analysts warn that firms
executing large buybacks risk shortchanging the investment spending
that fuels economic growth and rising living standards over time.
While buybacks can bolster demand for shares in the
short term, according to these skeptics, long-term profitability is
better served by investing in projects that promise higher returns
over the long haul.
Stock gains are “being supported by kind of less stable underpinnings
than we would like to see,” said Thomas Melcher, chief investment
officer at PNC Asset Management Group.
To
be sure, buybacks aren’t the only driver shrinking S&P 500 stock
outstanding.
Corporations broadly are selling fewer shares, and more mergers and
acquisitions are being funded by cash rather than share issuance,
reflecting in part the ease with which high-quality borrowers can take
out debt at low rates and make purchases without diluting
shareholders, as stock-financed acquisitions do.
And
questions over the long-term impact of buybacks aren’t the only ones
hanging over the fresh U.S. stock records. Individual investors remain
anxious, pulling $52 billion from U.S.-stock mutual funds and
exchange-traded funds in the first half of the year, according to
research firm Morningstar Inc. Many money managers said they believe
stocks are set for a fall of 5% to 10%, reflecting choppy economic
growth and high valuations.
While stock-fund withdrawals alone aren’t enough to drag down major
market indexes, the outflows are worrisome for some analysts who track
flows as an indicator of stock-market momentum. Investors have been
pulling money out of actively managed funds for years, but in recent
months that money hasn't flowed directly into ETFs, which are designed
to mimic the performance of an asset class or index. Now, some of it
is also getting parked in cash or money-market funds.
“It’s a head-scratching situation,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment
officer at wealth manager BMO Private Bank. Mr. Ablin said one BMO
fund that is typically entirely invested in stocks is 7% in cash.
Fundamentally, said Mr. Melcher of PNC, what drives stocks higher is
earnings growth. But companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report
their fifth consecutive quarter of contracting earnings, according to
FactSet. While earnings are important, many portfolio managers view
revenue growth as better reflecting firm performance in the context of
the broad business environment, and therefore more germane to routine
investment analysis.
“What we’d like to see is earnings growth coming from higher revenues
and economic activity running at a faster pace,” Mr. Melcher said.
“Those are typically more solid underpinnings for stocks.”
Write to
Corrie Driebusch at
corrie.driebusch@wsj.com and Ben
Eisen at
ben.eisen@wsj.com
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